I’m not sure if I’ll be able to watch the game tonight, but I just wanted to update the prediction I made in my previous post. I had predicted a win for the Rockets against Spurs (probably even in a blowout) if Spurs didn’t have Parker. Well, Parker is back and he did well against the Jazz, after being hesitant for the first half of the game. I didn’t watch the game, but just read the post game summary. Even though Parker turned it on in the second half and helped Spurs beat Jazz in overtime against a Jazz team that played better than they have in a while, I’m still sticking to my prediction that Rockets will take care of business against the Spurs. I don’t even think it’ll be a nail biter in which Rockets will have to pull out a win. I think Rockets will just take care of business, meaning not a blow out but an easy win, in which the game will be relatively close (with a few lead changes), but Rockets will have a 7+ point lead for the majority of the game and win by like 12 points or so.
Here are some of my reasons for predicting a win against the number 1 team in the West:
- Rockets have come close to beating Spurs a couple of time. One was that game in which Lin went Linsane and Rockets almost beat Spurs in San Antonio back on December 28th. The biggest reason they lost that game was because of McHale’s boneheaded in-game mistake. If you’re curious, you can go back and read the post I wrote on it.
- Rockets do pretty well against good teams in the Toyota Center. I don’t have time to look up stats on this, but from my flawed memory I think this has been the case. Rockets are a bunch of young guys who love to impress when they’re at home. I think that’s the psychological reason for it. So they step it up against good teams in front of their home crowd.
- Lin seems to do better against the Spurs and against Parker. I don’t know much about Parker’s defense, but Mo Willams, who Lin shut down completely, dropped 23 against Parker Friday night.
- Parker is a wildcard tonight. I expect him to still have some rust from being gone for five games, but he was back in form against the Jazz after the second half. He did say that he got winded (the game went into overtime). So I don’t expect the same Parker that has been a Rockets killer all season. I predict Parker won’t score over 23 tonight. This is a very bold prediction, since he has gone off against the Rockets in their previous meetings.
- The only thing that I’m concerned about with the Rockets is, of course, the fact that Rockets are still trying to figure things out after the mini shakeup. So our PFs are going to have a very tough time against whoever is going to play PF for the Spurs and also Asik always has a tough time against Duncan (although Duncan sometimes plays PF for their team). I expect T-Rob to get more playing time tonight and maybe he’ll be a a positive x-factor for the Rockets. But, other than these things, I think overall, Rockets are in good shape to take this win at home against the much slower Spurs team.
We’ll see what happens. In either case, it’s gonna be a fun game, that’s for damn sure.